← Back to map

Prediction track record

The model is locked before each month's sales register. Then it is graded against every one of them, misses included.

How this works

• Locked in advance. Around the 1st of each month, that month's valuation model is frozen and its SHA-256 fingerprint is published in the table above, before the month's resale prices appear in the public record. The fingerprint cannot be changed afterwards, and this page is independently snapshotted by the Internet Archive.
• Scored on every sale. HDB resales register with a delay of weeks to months. As each sale registered in a locked month becomes public, it is priced with the frozen model exactly as the live site would have priced it at the time, and compared with what the buyer actually paid.
• Nothing is hand-picked. Every registered sale of the month is scored. The few that cannot be scored are counted with their reasons in each month's details, so the denominator is always visible.
• Accruing, then final. A month's score updates daily while its registrations arrive, and is locked for good about three months later. Final scores are never revised, even if the public record is amended afterwards.
• Misses are expected. The "likely range" is an 80% range: roughly 2 in 10 sales should fall outside it. If far fewer missed, the ranges would be dishonestly wide; far more, dishonestly narrow.

One precision matters: this is not a forecast of future deals. A resale registers weeks after the deal was agreed, so the test is not "we saw the future" but something more useful: the estimate shown on the site was committed before the outcome was public, and here is how it did. The "old method" column scores the approach this site used before the model (the trailing 12-month median of comparable sales in the same block or street) on the same sales, where it can price them at all.

About the estimates

The estimates come from the same model behind the fair-value card on the map: a statistical model trained on five years of registered resale transactions, refreshed daily, with ranges calibrated against its own measured errors. It cannot see renovation, view, or urgency, which is exactly why the range exists. A statistical guide, not a valuation.

The same model also powers a monthly quality-adjusted resale price index for Singapore and every HDB town.

Questions

Methodology questions or anything that looks off: feedback@resalemap.sg. More about the site on the about page.